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[EVENT] Turkish Fighter Developments

When Turkey announced the TF-X, a planned "5th generation stealth fighter", the world laughed. Turkey hadn't built on its own anything more complicated than a prop trainer. Sure, it had licensed-assembled F-16s, but that was hardly anything of note.

Since then, Turkey has worked hard at developing the jet, and has made some progress. Stealth coatings have been developed--also to be used on new UAVs. Electronics have been developed, avionics manufactured. There are still several key problems lingering, most notably the lack of a suitable engine for the aircraft aside from just using a GE F110 or EJ200, despite Turkish attempts to develop a large indigenous engine. There's also still the problem of building indigenous air to air missiles.

Still, a pair of prototypes are now in the air, and the results have not been particularly promising--it looks like development will be a long slog as Turkey irons out the bugs in its first proper fighter jet [the combined trainelight fighter Hurjet is now entering service, but it's nowhere near as complex].

Ultimately, yeah, the critics were mostly right. Development of the TAI TF-X has been mired in difficulties and high costs. But it will come... in, they say, 2032 [and, to be honest, this is still probably a bit optimistic barring foreign help]. This is a major problem; because the ancient F-4s and early Block 30 F-16s of the Turkish Air Force are hitting end of life. The Turkish Air Force also needs a heavy fighter for electronic warfare [the electronic warfare equipment being of Turkish origin], and would like a new homeland defense aircraft that is capable and inexpensive to operate. After a great deal of highly politically charged controversy, the decision was made to open up a bid for foreign aircraft. And to try to get Rolls-Royce back onboard the project to develop an engine for the TF-X.

As a result, the Turkish Air Force has announced the following tender for approximately 64 new heavy fighters:
  • Must have two engines
  • Must have capability to integrate Turkish technology
  • Must have at least 8,000kg in payload
Scoring Criteria [in order from most to least important]:
  • Technology transfer
  • Portion of aircraft that can be license-built/assembled in Turkey
  • Total lifetime cost, including costs of acquisition and operation
  • Combat performance
  • Logistic concerns [commonality with existing Turkish hardware and supply chains]

Aircraft expected to meet requirements:
  • F-15EX [rumored to be the preferred option especially given the variation allowed, ie, on F-15I variant, and license-assembly deals like with the F-15K and engine commonality with Turkish F-16s]
  • F-18E/F [unlikely to win unless paired with EA-18G and even then...]
  • Eurofighter Typhoon [might win on tech transfelicense assembly]
  • Dassault Rafale [might win on tech transfelicense assembly]
  • Su-30MK [might win on tech transfelicense assembly and cost]
  • Su-35 [might win on tech transfelicense assembly and cost]
  • Shenyang FC-31 [could win on tech transfelicense assembly and cost, but is mostly here to avoid upsetting China]

Also, word would have it that the Turkish Air Force would take the F-35 even without any more tech transfelicense assembly than the original deal and it not meeting the requirements, even though they don't expect to get it.

In addition, in a separate deal, Turkey would like to approach Rolls-Royce again for an engine co-development proposal for the TF-X, and would like to thank the United Kingdom for being perhaps Turkey's most reliable foreign defense partner in aerospace; contributing substantial technologies to the TF-X.
submitted by AmericanNewt8 to GlobalPowers


Does India have the capability to sign and execute $10 billion+ defense deals ?

A. There seems to be a repeated pattern wherein particularly large defence deals seem to repeatedly get delayed for years/decades.
These deals have lasting effects on military capability, industrial capability and finance as well as missed opportunities.
Examples include: MMRCA, FICV, possibly (NMRH+NUH) , P75i
B. The reasons involved could be many. Possibly including
\1. Complexity and Deciding on industry model
Such large deals have the capability to transform segments of the defence sector. eg Foreign purchases, vs Bootstrap domestic private industry vs public industry jobs.
They tend to require new technology which is unavailable, and the terms on which they may become available for manufacturing or IP also tend to be complex, not comparable or may change.
\2. They are also transformative for the individual stakeholders, so they are willing to try different things to give themselves a chance.
\3 Capital expenditure of these sizes is a challenge.
Budgeting for these always seems to cause issues. especially when budgets do not roll over.
\4. Cost saving
There are institutional pressures to get the best deal possible or to save public money. Sometimes that makes it's appearances felt in ways that distort -not necessarily achieving ends. Negotiations tend to drag
\5. Corruption accusation aversion
\6. Others : Such as legal contract, Diplomatic/foreign ties & military closeness,(which country is trusted and for what)
D. By contrast smaller deals in order of a few billion seem to go through
eg 20 S70/MH60, P75 subs, S400, P8, Apaches, Chinooks, NASAM II, ....
The Rafale deal at close to 60,000 crores is the largest of thse, but worth noting that this was the spin-off of the even larger MMRCA
Others get to this size by dint of repeated purchase orders
E. There seems to be a rough order of cost at which the smaller deals seem to go through, but the larger deals get exponentially delayed.
Roughly at $10billion or so give or take.
The questions:
\1. Is the idea/thesis correct ?
What large deals have sailed through? Examples ?
Smaller deals that have gone through ?
\2. What could be the reasons behind it and how to solve it It's easy to give one line answer like cut babudom, or fire OFB/DRDO. But harder to accept consequences of that, or to understanding of why or how to make it happen eeasier.
Besides there can also be reasons to leverage existing strengths of a stakeholder, or that the problems involve multiple stakeholders.
\3. Should one just accept it ?
Are there ways to live with this and still get one's goals accomplished?
Bipin Rawat talked about spreading purchases out in smaller pieces, IIRC
Unfortunately you lose bargaining power and maybe chance of industrial restructuring/boost
Do you spread it out among different players (but that can only be manufacturing at best,to avoid logistics issues)
There can also be other ideas, like having unused capital budget rollover, allocating capital over several years and so on.
For each of your pet projects, how would you like to see it proceed ?
submitted by barath_s to IndianDefense