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V1per's Week 8 Survivor/Eliminator Pick

Anytime you can pick a 1-4 team and come out with a win you have to be happy. The game was back and forth throughout, but we got the win. The Jaguars really are that bad and we will continue to ride teams playing against them for most of the season. We had some close calls with other popular picks, but no major upsets across the league so most of your pools should still be relatively intact.
I don't care about stupid math stuff, just give me the team I should pick
Kansas City Chiefs. (maybe, see below) There are only 3 other options with lines better than 4 points, 1 we've used, and 2 that would be better used elsewhere. The Chiefs are favored by a whopping 19.5 points. Let's take the free win and move on.

Rank Team P(Win Week) P(Win Out) E(Wins)
1 KC 95% 13.0% 15.23
2 TEN 71% 10.5% 15.05
3 PHI 62% 9.3% 14.97
4 CAR 58% 8.7% 14.93
Sunday Update

Rank Team P(Win Week) P(Win Out) E(Wins)
1 KC 95% 18.5% 15.51
2 PHI 83% 18.2% 15.49
3 TEN 74% 15.2% 15.34
4 BAL 65% 12.1% 15.17
So the question I've been getting a lot and one that I've been grappling with is "What about PHI this week??"
I've looked at the numbers countless ways and here's the best I can give you:
From a pure mathematical perspective, KC is still the better pick this week. That being said, it's reeeeaally hard for me to pass up picking a team as bad as PHI when they are 10.5 point favorites.
If both teams win this week, then going with PHI will leave you with a 22% chance of going undefeated rest of season while KC leaves you at 19.5% That's a reasonable difference. KC is only the favored pick this week because they are as close to an automatic win as you can get in the NFL.
Option 1: KC this week (95%), HOU next week (77%) => 73% to win both
Option 2: PHI this week (83%), KC next week (87%) => 72% to win both
Looking at it this way, assuming KC wins both, who do you trust more, PHI vs DAL, or HOU vs JAX?
Season so far
7-0. One more win and we've made it half the season.

Rest of Season Outlook
Teams in italics are changes from last week. This is simply to give some insight into why team X or Y aren't being picked this week. It's usually because they are better off being used later in the season, or it's because I've already used them.

Week Team Opp P(Win)
1 BUF NYJ 100%
2 TB CAR 100%
3 CLE WSH 100%
4 LAR NYG 100%
5 NO LAC 100%
6 MIA NYJ 100%
7 LAC JAX 100%
8 KC NYJ 95%
9 ARI MIA 77%
10 GB JAX 89%
11 PIT '@JAX 86%
12 DET HOU 56%
13 SEA NYG 86%
14 TEN '@JAX 84%
15 BAL JAX 91%
16 CHI '@JAX 76%
17 IND JAX 84%
As Jacksonville continues to lose we continue to pick against them.
Week 12 is still the largest hurdle by far. I hate that it's so close, but there just aren't any viable games to pick that week. Still hoping that one team really steps up to make me feel more confident, otherwise, the rest of the season is looking better and better.

Nerdy math stuff
P(Win Out) = 13.0% (+4.2pp) Now a 1 in 8 chance of going the distance
E(Wins) = 15.23 (+0.35) -- Still expecting to lose 1 or 2 games
I get team win percentages from 538 for every game in the entire season. I update probabilities for the current week based on Vegas betting lines to better take into account current team situations that 538's computer models can't account for.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it's optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (70+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you're in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
I've tried to take into account every rule-set possible, but if you have a funky league rule that the workbook doesn't seem to work for let me know and I'll see if I can add the feature.
submitted by V1per41 to fantasyfootball

Magmar Community Day - Sunday, November 21 - 11 AM to 5 PM local time [IV Chart/ Coords / GPX Routes]

Magmar Community Day - Sunday, November 21 - 11 AM to 5 PM local time [IV Chart/ Coords / GPX Routes]


*If there is an IV chart, I will edit this post to include it. The IV chart is not always available at each event because other people make them. I usually get them from Pokedex100 discord group.
Go Battle League Tiers:
  • Little League - under 500 CP = L5.5, 359 CP
  • Great League - under 1500 CP = L16.5, 1128 CP
  • Ultra League - under 2500 CP = L27.5, 1881 CP
Event Date:
  • Sunday, November 21 - 11 AM to 5 PM local time
Event Information:
  • Increased spawn rate of Magmar
  • Boosted shiny rate of Magmar
  • 1/4 Hatch Distance
  • 3 hour Incense
  • Suprise Snapshot encounters
  • Pay-to-play Community Day Special Research
  • Magmortar will learn Thunderbolt upon evolution
  • Magby will be hatching from 2 km Eggs.
  • Event will only last 6 hours!

Countdown Timer site:
[--- Places with Coordinates ---]
  • You will need to refer to my sticky comment below, so you can copy and paste them by pressing on the 3 black dots (mobile app). If you cannot find it, you can press with your finger or click with your mouse on here.
[--- Places with GPX ---]
  • To download a GPX, you press with your finger or click with your mouse on the Green Color Text with a line underneath it. These are download links.
  • If you get an import error, you must rename the .XML file back to a .GPX. Do not forget the period before the G.
  • If you want a lot of GPX Routes on your device, you should go to the post in the "Useful stuff as Always" section.
  • If you see a (number), it means the approximate number of Pokestops in the route.
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submitted by TastyBananaPeppers to PoGoAndroidSpoofing